Tropical Storm Watch · San Diego County

A Tropical Storm Watch for San Diego County, and a wind forecast the models can't agree on

Tropical Storm Rachel comes inland near the border early Sunday, and this morning's watch covers all four San Diego County zones — which puts nine Oakmont communities inside it. The official gridded forecast has gusts in the twenties to low thirties at those nine. The ECMWF and its ensemble are far stronger, the track guidance shifted north overnight, and intensity guidance is trending up. Plan for a gusty, wet Sunday morning — and for the real chance it lands harder than the grid says.

Josh Bradley 9 October 2026, 11:00 AM PDT Prepared for Oakmont Group

Sites in the watch

23%

NHC odds of 39 mph sustained

25–70mph

Gust spread across guidance

~6AM

Sunday, when it peaks

Where Rachel is and what changed overnight

At 11 AM Rachel was about 800 miles southwest of San Diego, holding 50 mph and crawling northeast at 5 mph. She accelerates hard over the weekend and comes inland near the border early Sunday, then falls apart over the desert through the day.

Two things moved in the overnight guidance, and both moved against us. The Hurricane Center notes a northward shift in the track models, which now bring the center near the border or into extreme southern California rather than well down in Baja. And intensity guidance trended up — the water just off northern Baja is running six to seven degrees Celsius above normal for October, which is why a storm in otherwise hostile dry air is expected to hold tropical storm strength all the way to landfall. NHC's own intensity forecast now sits near the top of the guidance envelope.

The wind is the open question

Here is the honest state of it. The National Weather Service gridded forecast — the product we normally quote — puts peak gusts at our nine sites between 25 and 32 mph. But that grid sits at the bottom of the guidance envelope, and the forecasters who wrote it say so themselves: their own discussion calls for coastal-basin gusts of 20 to 40 mph in the most likely scenario, with 50 to 70 in the mountains and passes.

Guidance	Peak gust at our sites	Reaches 39 mph?
ICON, GEM, UKMO, ARPEGE	18–31 mph	No
NWS gridded forecast	25–32 mph	No
GFS	30–41 mph	Two coastal sites
NWS San Diego discussion	20–40 mph	At the top of the range
ECMWF ensemble, median of 51	43–47 mph	Yes, at seven of nine
ECMWF operational run	61–72 mph	Well above, at all nine

Peak hourly gust, Saturday through Sunday, at each site's coordinates. Treat the ECMWF operational number with some caution: its sustained wind (30 mph) is almost identical to the GFS (31 mph), so most of that headline gust comes from its gust calculation rather than a stronger wind field. The ensemble median is the more trustworthy signal, and across 51 members it gives roughly a 60% chance of a 39 mph gust at the seven southern and inland sites.

The Hurricane Center's own probability table is the cleanest way to hold both facts at once. For San Diego it gives a 23% chance of sustained tropical storm force (39 mph) and a 4% chance of 58 mph. A roughly one-in-four shot at sustained 39 mph, alongside a better-than-even shot at gusting to it, is a coherent picture — and it is the picture to plan against. The strongest winds stay in the eastern and southern half of the circulation, which still favors us, but by a narrower margin than it did yesterday.

Rain, and the Sunday morning pile-up

Rain is the more certain hazard and has not changed much: about three quarters of an inch at most sites, roughly three quarters of it falling Sunday. NWS puts a 25% chance on the higher-end case of one to two inches across the coastal basin.

Site	Zone	Rain	Grid gust	ECMWF ens.
Oakmont of Escondido Hills	Inland Valleys	0.88 in	26	47
Ivy Park at Escondido	Inland Valleys	0.87 in	26	47
Ivy Park at Sabre Springs	Inland Valleys	0.84 in	26	47
Ivy Park at Otay Ranch Chula Vista	Coastal	0.80 in	25	44
Ivy Park at Bonita Chula Vista	Coastal	0.75 in	25	44
Oakmont of Pacific Beach	Coastal	0.71 in	32	43
Ivy Park at La Jolla	Coastal	0.70 in	32	43
Santianna Carlsbad	Coastal	0.90 in	28	34
Hacienda Mission San Luis Rey Oceanside	Coastal	0.86 in	28	34

Rain is the Saturday–Sunday total from the NWS gridded forecast. Gust columns are peak hourly, in mph: the gridded forecast and the ECMWF ensemble median, shown together because the gap between them is the point. The three inland valley sites carry both the most rain and the strongest ensemble wind. Sea Bluffs, Ivy Park at San Juan Capistrano and Ivy Park at Murrieta sit just outside the watch and see the same rain with less wind.

Everything lands in the same few hours. Peak gusts, heaviest rain and the 9:43 AM La Jolla high tide all arrive Sunday morning, with surf of five to seven feet and sets to nine on top of the tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement are already running for the coastal zone and will almost certainly be reissued for Sunday.

And it is the first real rain of the season, so it lifts eight months of oil and dust off the pavement while filling drains that haven't been tested since spring — during Sunday breakfast and the morning med pass.

Bottom line

Nine communities are in the watch. The most likely Sunday is wet and gusty but unremarkable — and there is a real, roughly one-in-four chance of sustained tropical storm wind that the gridded forecast alone would not tell you about. Prepare Saturday for the stronger case; it costs little if the quiet one shows up.

This weekend at the nine sites

Saturday before dark

Clear roof drains, gutters and area drains. First rain of the season — they're full of eight months of debris. Bring in or tie down everything loose outdoors. Plan for 45 mph, not 25 — furniture, umbrellas, signage, trash enclosures. Check generator fuel and test the transfer. Outages are the most likely real disruption, and the stronger scenarios make them widespread rather than scattered. Charge everything, and confirm the call tree. If the ECMWF case verifies, it happens between 4 and 9 AM Sunday with overnight staffing on.

Sunday morning roughly 4 AM to noon

Move outdoor activities and walks indoors. Wet walkways and a windy morning are the real injury risk, well before the storm is. Mats and wet-floor signs at every entry. Expect tracked-in water all morning. Keep residents away from glass on the south and east sides during the peak hours, if gusts are running above forecast. Walk the grounds once it eases. Limbs, standing water at low spots, anything blocking an exit path.

Pacific Beach and La Jolla only Sunday around high tide

No beach or boardwalk outings Sunday. High tide 9:43 AM, surf to nine feet, and that combination is what the coastal flood advisory is about.

What we're watching

Whether the rest of the guidance comes up to meet the ECMWF, or the ECMWF comes down. Rachel is still two days out and moving slowly, which is exactly when tracks wander, and the trend so far this cycle has been toward a closer, stronger storm rather than away from one. The 2 PM and 8 PM advisories today and tomorrow's first run are the ones that settle it. We'll text OMG South if the numbers at any site move materially — and we'll send a short update tomorrow either way.

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