Western Confluence Group
Prepared for
Oakmont Group
Weather & Fire Intelligence

Oakmont Group

Briefings from Western Confluence Group on the weather and fire conditions that affect your communities — what's coming, what it tends to mean for sites like yours, and what's worth getting ahead of.

9 October 2026 Nine San Diego County communities · tropical storm watch

A Tropical Storm Watch for San Diego County, and a wind forecast the models can't agree on

Tropical Storm Rachel comes inland near the border early Sunday, and this morning's watch covers all four San Diego County zones — so nine Oakmont communities are inside it. The official grid says gusts in the twenties to low thirties; the ECMWF and its ensemble say considerably more, the track guidance shifted north overnight, and NHC gives San Diego a 23% chance of sustained tropical storm force. Plan for a wet, gusty Sunday morning and prepare for the stronger case.

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4 Oct 2026 State of the Season: no offshore event yet, a long heat wave now, and an El Niño that cuts both ways Where the season actually stands going into offshore wind season. No Santa Ana or Diablo event worth the name so far, and the record El Niño makes a below-normal number of them likely. But the fuels are drying fast under this heat. Plus Colorado after Aspen Acres — where the drought is deep, all six communities were under smoke in July, and the most destructive fire in state history burned on 30 December. 29 Sep 2026 Where the Oakmont portfolio stands on flood, going into a record El Niño winter We checked all 119 Oakmont communities against FEMA's flood maps. Five sit in a regulatory floodplain — only two of them with a published depth to plan against — one has that floodplain 21 metres from its front door, four sit on ground nobody has ever studied, and eight are dry only because a levee is holding. 22 Sep 2026 La Verne battery fire: the zones are shrinking, and things are heading the right way The county has pulled the evacuation zones around the Weymouth plant battery fire back sharply, and the nearest order is now 1.9 miles from Ivy Park. Keep the building closed up until the west wind eases around 7 PM; overnight the wind turns and carries everything away from us. 11 Sep 2026 A Red Flag Warning for Redding, and the wind comes through twice Critical fire weather from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM Monday. The HRRR has Saturday evening gusting 45 to 55 mph where the official forecast says 31, and that gap is the open question in this period. Then a quiet but very dry Sunday, and a north wind back overnight into Monday. 7 Sep 2026 A watch for Oahu, and the models keep nudging Lowell our way Hurricane Lowell is a Category 3 tracking north-northeast toward Kauai, and a Tropical Storm Watch now covers East Honolulu. The official track keeps the wind field about 45 miles short of The Ivy — but the best-performing guidance has pulled east four advisories running, and the Flood Watch and High Surf Warning apply either way. 5 Aug 2026 No wind in the forecast — and the fuels don't care The ridge holds through the weekend, and Southern California's fuels have come out of it drier than normal almost everywhere. Why fire danger is very high with no wind event in sight, and what the thunderstorms arriving Thursday east of I-15 do and don't mean. 27 Jul 2026 First real heat of the summer — and it may hang around Why a long heat event is a different animal from a short one, what the overnight lows tell you before the daytime highs do, and what plume-dominated fire weather means for your sites.

When something's coming

We send a briefing when the pattern warrants it — extended heat, a wind event, elevated fire weather, or smoke likely to reach your communities. Not on a schedule, and not for ordinary weather.

What's in one

What we're seeing, how confident we are, and what it tends to mean for senior living sites specifically. You know your sites; we know the weather.

Between briefings

Text in OMG South, OMG North or OMG Hawaii for any questions or concerns. We'll continue to send fire and immediate alerts through those groups.

Josh Bradley

Text OMG South, OMG North or OMG Hawaii any time — questions, concerns, or a read on a specific property.

Official sources

For watches, warnings and advisories: weather.gov. For incidents and evacuations, your county emergency management office and CAL FIRE.